Relevant statistics show that in November 2014, the added value of textile industry above designated size increased by 7.5% year on year, 1.2 percentage points higher than that in October. From January to November 2014, the industrial added value of the textile industry has maintained a low oscillation since the beginning of the year, but from the trend of industrial added value in recent three months, there is a trend of recovery and rebound.

At present, the growth rate of domestic demand in the cotton market has recovered. Relevant statistics show that in September last year, the retail sales of clothing and knitwear products of enterprises (units) above designated size were 18.98 billion yuan, up 3.59% year on year, a slight recovery from the growth rate of 1.5% in the same period last year; From January to September last year, the accumulated retail sales of clothing, knitwear and textiles of enterprises (units) above designated size were 167.98 billion yuan, up 3.3% year on year, a slight increase of 0.16 percentage points over the same period last year.

According to the survey data of China Cotton Information Network, as of the end of December last year, the cotton inventory of textile enterprises was 596700 tons, an increase of 95700 tons over the previous month. However, it should be noted that the increase in industrial inventory is mainly due to the increase in Xinjiang cotton procurement by some textile enterprises in order to obtain more cotton quotas. In addition, the cotton import quota in 2014 will be used up by the end of February this year, and textile enterprises have also increased the procurement of imported cotton. Looking at the historical data, the cotton inventory of textile enterprises in 2014 has remained low, which shows that the consumption of cotton in the downstream is not optimistic.

The pressure at the inlet and outlet is still high

According to new data from the General Administration of Customs, in November 2014, China's export of textiles and clothing was about 24.345 billion US dollars, a year-on-year decrease of 0.47%, 17.08 percentage points higher than the same period last year; The month on month decrease was 8.27%, 9.81 percentage points higher than the same period last year. From January to November 2014, China's textile and clothing exports totaled US $272.817 billion, an increase of US $14.743 billion or 5.71% over the same period of the previous year, with a decrease of 6.06 percentage points over the same period of the previous year. The export pressure of textiles is still high.

This year, China adjusted the import and export tariffs on some commodities, and continued to implement sliding tax on a certain amount of cotton imported beyond the tariff quota, with the tax rate unchanged. This news is quite different from the content of the non issuance quota in principle proposed by the heads of relevant departments in 2015. The adjustment of import policy has actually eased the import threshold for textile enterprises without tariff import quotas. It is expected that foreign cotton will fall to a certain extent in the future or stimulate the import enthusiasm of domestic textile enterprises.

In conclusion, the author believes that the domestic cotton price will continue the marketization process and the policy influence will gradually weaken in the later period. However, under the background that the textile industry is still operating at a low speed, cotton prices are expected to continue to be weak. However, considering that the overall supply and demand pattern of the year is developing in a favorable direction, cotton prices are expected to rebound in the medium and long term. The extent of the rise is limited by the weakness of textile consumption and the high cotton inventory in China. It is expected that there will be no big market.